000 FXUS63 KILX 140842 COR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 330 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2000 FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT SVL DAYS CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING 2 DISTINCT BOUNDARIES ACRS THE MIDWEST. MOST IMPORTANT BNDRY FOR CNTRL IL LOCATED ACRS CNTRL MO WITH MSAS MOIST CONVERGENCE SUGGESTING BNDRY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM SRN IA TO NR STL. 925 AND 850 WIND MAXIMAS LOCATED FROM CNTRL KS NEWD INTO NW MO WITH CONVECTION DVLPG ALONG AND JUST TO THE LEFT OF LLJ. ETA/MESOETA PICKED UP ON THIS WELL THIS MRNG AND DID A FAIRLY DECENT JOB WITH SHORTWAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP OVR NEB AND OMEGA FIELDS JUST TO ITS EAST. FOR ONCE...ETA MODEL DID A FAIRLY DECENT JOB WITH QPF FIELDS ALONG BNDRY AND MOVES CONVECTION SEWD INTO ERN MO BY 12Z. QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH FURTHER EAST PRECIP WL MOVE BEFORE DISSIPATING. LAST EVENINGS UA ANALYSIS INDICATING BETTER MOISTURE FIELDS TO WORK WITH THAN 24 HOURS AGO. LATEST RUC MODEL DEPICTING SOME WEAK 850 MB MOIST CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EAST INTO CNTRL IL BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z SO WL CONTINUE CURRENT POPS IN FORECAST WITH OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOT SEEING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP TODAY. WDSPRD AC AND LGT -SHRA DID TEMPS IN YSTDY WITH TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACRS FCST AREA AGAIN TODAY...SO WL BE A LITTLE BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND GO AOB GUID FOR THIS AFTN. CNTRL MO BNDRY LIFTS NWD AND JOINS MAIN SYNOPTIC BNDRY ACRS THE NRN PLAINS TNT. ADDL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FCST TO MOVE EWD ACRS THE PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST AND NW. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTING CAPES INCREASE TO ARND 1500 J/KG BY EVENING WITH LI/S AROUND -5. HOWEVER A FAIRLY DECENT CAP IS IN PLACE AS WELL WITH CINS AOA 300 BY MIDNIGHT. 925/850 WIND MAXIMA STILL OUT TO OUR WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 1000-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP FROM NWRN WI SWWD INTO NRN IA. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT SO NOT PLANNING ON ADDING POPS TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF AREA ON TUE DRAGGING COLD FRONT SWD ACRS CNTRL IL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXCEPT FOR THE NGM...MODELS ARE NOT TO IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES. BEST UPPER FORCING IS TO OUR EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY...HOWEVER...WITH FRONT COMING THRU AT PEAK HTG TIME...FAIRLY DECENT H7 OMEGA NOTED ON MODELS RIGHT ALONG BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING CAP ALL POINT TO HANGING IN WITH THE 40 POPS TUE AFTN AND EVE. WITH SLY FLOW IN PLACE TNT AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WL STAY CLOSE TO GUID NUMBERS. WINDS FCST TO SHIFT INTO MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TUE JUST AHD OF FRONT. MANY TIMES IN THESE SITUATIONS LATE IN SUMMER WE SEE TEMPS SOAR THANKS IN LARGE PART TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING NR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (PROVIDING NO WDSPRD CONVECTION OR CLOUD COVER IS EXPCTD). 850 TEMPS FCST AROUND +22C AND BRINGING PARCEL DOWN DRY ADIABATICALLY WOULD PRODUCE MAXES IN THE MID 90S. PARCELS BROUGHT DOWN MIXED WOULD GIVE US TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND FEEL WITH SOME CLOUDS EXPCTD ACRS AREA FROM SCT CONVECTION...THAT MAY BE MORE IN LINE TUE AFTN. FRONT DOESN'T GET TOO FAR SOUTH OF FCST AREA TUE NIGHT BEFORE OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO ACT ON BNDRY FOR WED. AM INCLINED TO PUT POPS IN FOR LATER WED AS RETURN FLOW ALREADY SETTING UP TO OUR WEST BY MRNG WITH A FAIRLY DECENT AREA OF LIFT NOTED ON MODELS ACRS IA BY 12Z. WITH GULF OF MEXICO BECOMING MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEK...BIG QUESTION FOR US WL BE HOW THIS WL AFFECT TIMING OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH. THINGS USUALLY GET BOGGED DOWN UP THIS WAY WHEN AUGUST COMES ROLLING AROUND AND THE GULF HAS A HURRICANE OR TWO TO DEAL WITH. WL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MED RANGE MODELS WANT TO HANDLE OUR SYSTEMS COMING LATER IN THE WEEK. QUICK LOOK AT NEW MRF SUGGESTS FRONT EXPCTD ACRS STATE ON THU TO BECOME STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH WITH FAIRLY DECENT ARE OF PRECIP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF BNDRY. CURRENT EFP HAS THIS HANDLED WELL FOR END OF WEEK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO EXTENDED FORECAST. (CORRECTED WORDING IN MIDDLE PARAGRAPH) ...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY... SPI BB 086/070 090/070 086 44424 PIA BB 085/069 089/069 085 44424 DEC BB 885/068 090/070 086 44324 CMI BB 086/068 089/069 085 44324 MTO BB 087/070 090/070 086 44324 LWV BB 089/070 092/070 087 44213 .ILX..3.NONE. SMITH