986 FXUS63 KTOP 140816 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 315 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2000 ...TIMING ENDING OF SHOWERS THE SHORT TERM PROBLEM...THEN HOW HOT TO GO WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY... IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WELL DEFINED IN WATER VAPOR...RUNNING FROM NEAR GRI BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST KS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...AIDED BY 35-45 KT 850 MB JET AS SHOWN BY WIND PROFILER NETWORK. WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO CARRY UNQUALIFIED WORDING FOR PCPN IN NORTH CENTRAL ZONES INTO THIS MORNING AND LIKELY INTO NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS WELL. MAY BE ABLE TO JUST CARRY 20-30 PERCENT POP IN EAST CENTRAL AS MOST PRECIP LIKELY TO STAY NORTH OF I-70. MODELS INDICATING SHORTWAVE SHEARING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WITH PCPN TO END NORTH CENTRAL BY MID MORNING AND OVER REST OF CWA BY NOON. TRENDS FROM ALL MODELS IS TO DRY ATMOSPHERE OUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING INTO 1-1.25 RANGE WITH 40+ K INDICES OF LAST EVENING FALLING BACK TO AROUND 30 BY AFTERNOON. WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVES FOLLOWING THIS ONE...AND MODELS BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS EVEN MORE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL GO WITH DRY FORECAST. PREFER ETA/AVN IN STALLING NEXT FRONT OUT ALONG THE KS/NEBRASKA BORDER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NGM AGAIN APPEARS TO BE PUSHING FRONT TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS KS CONSIDERING BUILDING 500 HEIGHTS AND ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. WITH NO COLD FRONTS MAKING IT ACROSS THE CWA...CANT SEE TEMPERATURES BEING MUCH DIFFERENT THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE... FWC/FAN GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN 3-6 DEGREES TOO COOL FOR PAST WEEK OR SO WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES. IN THE EXTENDED...MAY GO WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AS CANADIAN/NO GAPS INDICATING SOME CHANCE AT THAT TIME. IN THE MEANTIME...CONTINUED HOT WITH NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE OF RAIN. .TOP...NONE.