871 
FXUS64 KSJT 140718
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
217 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2000

FIRST THINGS FIRST...WILL SOMEONE PLEASE TURN OFF THE HEATER?  
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE DIGITS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO 
DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.  KABI RECORD FOR TODAY 
IS 104 SET IN 1969...AND IF THINGS PAN OUT RIGHT...IT COULD BE IN 
JEOPARDY.  WOULD LIKE TO THINK THAT AN EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WOULD 
FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...EASTERLY WINDS 
PREVAILED SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES STILL SOARED TO 102 TO 104 DEGREES 
AREAWIDE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE LAYING ACROSS WEST TEXAS.  NOT MUCH 
CHANGE THROUGH 24 HOURS...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT NEAR RECORD WORDING FOR 
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE BIG COUNTRY TODAY.  THERE IS HOPE FOR SOME 
RELIEF ON THE HORIZON.  THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 
OBVIOUSLY BECOMES VERY IMPORTANT STARTING TUESDAY.  LARGE SWATH OF 
DRY AIR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOULD/COULD BE REPLACED WITH A 
MORE TROPICAL AIRMASS AS 5/BERYL APPROACHES THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.  
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 
AROUND OR EVEN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK.  AS OF 
NOW...BASED ON THE NHC FORECAST TRACK...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF 
CLOUDS AND POPS...WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES 
STARTING TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE PATH FORECAST 
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE GOING FORECAST...AND LEAVE WEST CENTRAL 
TEXAS EITHER COMPLETELY HIGH AND DRY OR IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION 
FOR PRECIP.  WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...WILL MAINTAIN 
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS STARTING TUESDAY AND LATER SHIFTS CAN 
REFINE THE FORECAST.         

THANKS TO KEWX FOR COORDINATION.

PRELIMS

ABI 102/074/098/073 00-1
SJT 102/074/099/075 0012
JCT 100/072/096/074 0024
    
.SJT...NONE.

20
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