091
FXUS63 KDMX 280825
AFDDSM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2000

AVN MODEL APPEARS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT WEATHER THE CLOSEST...AND
THAT IS THE MODEL FOLLOWED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

SHORT TERM CONCERNS...SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS NEAR OMA USING THE
DISTANCE SPEED PRODUCT...ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
TAYLOR COUNTY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 5 AM. NORTHEAST FLOW TO PUSH
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...PUSHING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...FORECAST CONCERNS SHIFT TO SATURDAY WHEN UPPER
LOW THAT IS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SENDS A SHORTWAVE
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH BRINGS LOWER HEIGHTS AND
TROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI. MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
PLACE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE SATURDAY WILL LEND TO
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNDER COLD
ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW.

ACCORDING TO STPIA...FWC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO HAVE THE
BEST PERFORMANCE.

.DSM...NONE
TC