000 
FXUS63 KARX 252018
AFDLSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2000

...MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TONIGHT...AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...

18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW CENTER ALONG THE NORTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO NEBRASKA. 1915 UTC WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES VERY NICE SWIRL OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
CONVECTION FIRING AHEAD OF IT IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE
SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP IN EASTERN MINNESOTA...NORTH OF SAINT CLOUD.

ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE 12 UTC MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. FOR
CONSISTENCY...WILL GO MORE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE ETA. EARLY
AFTERNOON LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1200 J/KG IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE ETA FORECAST.
FORECAST CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN
MINUS 2 AND MINUS 6...AND GOOD VERTICAL SHEAR ALL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN WESTERN AREAS...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SEVERE AS WELL.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH
PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FORECAST CAPE VALUES BY EARLY AFTERNOON ARE
BETWEEN 1800 AND 2200 J/KG TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE ON WEDNESDAY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

WIT
H A FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND... ADDED A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION DMX...MKX...AND DVN.

.LSE...NONE.

CONSIDINE