604 
FXUS63 KDDC 251940
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2000

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE LOW POPS NEXT 48 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH TEMPS.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST
SOUTHWEST OF EHA, WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH EXTENDING BOTH NORTH AND
SOUTH FROM THE LOW.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EVIDENT OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING, WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TIP OF
NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEST SIDE OF TROUGH, JUST EAST OF ROCKIES, HAS
WARMED MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO 90S.  SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO WARM WITH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS CROSSING OVER
NEARLY SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS.  ADDITIONALLY, DDC 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWED STRONG INVERSION AT LOWEST LEVELS, AND IT WOULD TAKE MID TO
UPPER 90S TO BREAK INVERSION AND ALLOW FULL MIXING.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A WEAK 40-50KT NW JET AT
250MB FROM NE WYOMING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NE CORNER OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  500MB CHART SHOWED UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER 4-CORNERS AREA AND WEAK 15KT NW WIND OVER DDC.
700MB WAS RATHER BORING, SHOWING +14C CAPPING ISOTHERM AT FAR
NORTHEAST AS FROM DEN TO DDC. AT 850MB, THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE
IS THE WARM AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DDC, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AZ.  LOW
PRESSURE OVER WEST KANSAS, BUT VERY WEAK.

12Z MODEL INITIALIZATION HAD ETA SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 500MB, WHERE
FLOW IS WEAK, AND ALL MODELS ABOUT THE SAME (POOR) AT 850MB AND
SURFACE LEVELS.  WILL LEAN ON ETA FOR MOST PART, BUT STAY NEAR
PERSISTENCE FOR 1ST 48 HOURS.  WILL GO WITH LOW POPS, LESS THAN 20
POPS, BASICALLY WEST OF DIGHTON-JETMORE-DDC-MEADE LINE.  AND 20 POP
EAST OF MENTIONED LINE FOR TONIGHT.  DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
EASTERN CWA, WILL GO WITH JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AND WARMER NIGHT
TIME LOWS THAN IN WEST ZONES, FOR BOTH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE LONG LIVED CONVECTIVE EVENTS, BUT SHORT WAVE
INDUCED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE THE DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MRF/ECMWF AND THE UKMET/CANADIAN FOR THE WEEKEND.  THE
MRF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO
KANSAS BY SATURDAY, WHILE THE UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS ADVERTISE NO
SUCH FEATURE.  EVEN IF A SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT DOES NOT MATERIALIZE,
FEEL THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH NORTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION TO BRING
BOUNDARIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW.  WILL THUS KEEP POPS AND COOLING TREND INTACT THROUGH MONDAY,
AS FRONT/BOUNDARIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS TIME.  UPPER HIGH LOOKS
TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY AND KEEP MINOR
DISTURBANCES OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS.

PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 065/092 068/095 069 1-1
GCK 064/093 067/095 068 1-1
EHA 064/095 067/096 068 1-2
LBL 066/093 068/096 069 1-1
HYS 065/091 069/095 069 212
P28 070/094 072/096 071 112

.DDC...NONE.

BURKE/POAGE