013 
FXUS63 KTOP 250739
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
240 AM CDT TUE JUL 25 2000

...PRECIPTATION CHANCES ARE MAIN CONCERNS...

MODELS NOT HANDLING CONVECTION COMING SOUTHWARD ALONG INSTABLILITY 
AXIS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  WATER VAPOR SHOWING IMPLUSE SLIDING 
SOUHTHEAST OUT OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH LOBE SOUTH INTO EASTERN 
KANSAS. MODELS DUE FOCUS VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS OVER THE EAST 
THROUGH 18Z.  SINCE 07Z...ECHOES HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND THEY SHOULD STEER SOUTHEAST.  WILL
GO WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF AREA THIS 
MORNING...THEN KEEP A LOW POP OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMP-WISE...GUIDANCE IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE LOOK FINE FOR 
TODAY.

MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGHT OF UPPER FEATURES TONIGHT...WILL GO ALONG 
WITH ETA FOR NOW.  WILL GO WITH DIURNAL TREND OF ACTIVITY BUILDING 
NEAR FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN THETA E...INSTABLILITY ACESS AND
FLOW ALOFT WOULD STEER SOUTHEAST.  FOR NOW HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH 
CENTRAL...A LITTLER LOWER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL.  WILL CONTINUE
POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MENTION IN THE MORNING THEN LATE IN 
AFTERNOON.

NOT SURE WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE SO WILL KEEP SOME MENTION 
OF POPS FOR AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE SAME RANGE OF 85 TO 
AROUND 90 DEGREES.

.TOP...NONE
FRANTZ