000 
FXUS63 KEAX 250701
AFDMCI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
200 AM CDT TUE JUL 25 2000

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE ARE CHANCES OF PRECIP AND 
TEMPS.

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. SYNOPTIC PATTERN KEEPS UPPER 
RIDGE TO OUR WEST THROUGH THIS FORECAST. WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING 
THROUGH EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES DOWN EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE THIS MORNING. STRONGER 
WAVE ALONG CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD HEAD INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES 
TONIGHT AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER JET MAX 
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEAKENS SOME THIS MORNING...BUT 
JET REMAINS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIVING MORE 
INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT. TIMING OF WAVES COMING OVER RIDGE IS 
DIFFICULT AS CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE AN EFFECT.

SURFACE FEATURES HAVE A FRONT FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST 
ALONG MINNESOTA/DAKOTA BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM 
WISCONSIN...THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE 
TONIGHT. THETA E AXIS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH KANSAS...UP ALONG THIS 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WOULD CLIP NORTHWEST MISSOURI...BUT MUCH OF 
CWA REMAINS IN DRIER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE 
NORTH OF MISSOURI THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING....WITH ONLY A GRADUAL 
SHIFT SOUTHWARD OF THETA E AXIS.   

OVERALL...MODELS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR WITH UPPER PATTERN...BUT SEEM TO 
BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTING CATCHING WHERE PRECIP SHOULD BREAK OUT. 
NONE OF THEM HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. 
CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI SHOULD AFFECT EXTREME 
NORTHERN PART OF CWA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ANY 
FURTHER SOUTH AS IT MOVES OUT OF BETTER MOISTURE AXIS AND LOSES LOW 
LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THUS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING PRECIP FROM 
KANSAS CITY PORTION OF ZONES. 

FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT IN NEBRASKA 
AGAIN AND UPPER THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SOUTHEAST 
MOVEMENT. THETA E AXIS DOES MOVE FURTHER INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI 
AND NORTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...THUS THINK MAY SEE STORMS MAKING IT
FURTHER INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT THAN IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING.  BUT 
LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE VEERING OFF BY THAT TIME...SO THINK SOUTHERN 
PART OF CWA SHOULD STAY DRY. CURRENT ZONES REFLECT THIS TREND. 
MOISTURE AXIS RETREATS SOME INTO IOWA DURING DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS 
850 WINDS BACK. HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE 
DAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PULL CURRENT POPS IN ZONES AS 
TONIGHTS CONVECTION MAY LEAVE SOME BOUNDARIES. 

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN THETA E AXIS REMAINS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND 
IOWA AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF 
STORMS DEVELOPING IN NEBRASKA. WEAK UPPER WAVE AT 500 AND 700 MB 
ALSO INDICATED BY ETA MODEL SOULD SUPPORT THIS DEVELOPMENT.  MAY 
STILL BE SEEING SOME INFLUENCE OF STRONGER UPPER WAVE IN WESTERN 
GREAT LAKES...THAT COULD CLIP NORTHEAST MISSOURI WITH PRECIP LATE 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING OF 850 TEMPS 
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NEBRASKA 
AND IOWA. CLOUD DEBRIS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE SLIGHT INFLUENCE...BUT 
WILL TREND TOWARD GUIDANCE TEMPS...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO CURRENT ZONE 
NUMBERS. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS 850 TEMPS 
CONTINUE TO WARM. DEWPOINTS S@HOULD ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE...SO 
IT WILL START FEELING LIKE LATE JULY AGAIN.

.EAX...NONE

PC