000 
FXUS62 KMHX 130642
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
241 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2000

UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN FOR SUMMER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH CONTINUED RETROGRESSION OF THE CONTINENTAL
RIDGE AND ESTRN TROUGH. NC WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK...
ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COUPLED WITH A DIFFUSE SFC PRES/MOISTURE PATTERN WILL MAKE FOR A
TOUGH FORECAST POP WISE. AN ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z MODEL RUN INDICATED
A DECREASE IN MEAN RH AND AN INCREASE IN STABILITY FOR MUCH OF MY
CWFA. THE "FRONT"/WSHFT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH...SO MY FIRST
IMPRESSION WAS TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MOS
RUN HAD POPS FOR MY ENTIRE REGION. A WEAK VORT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME
CONVECTION. 500 MB TEMPS COOL ABOUT 2C SO ANY HEATING WOULD TEND TO
INCREASE INSTAB. LIMITING FACTORS ARE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
GUIDANCE DECREASES 850 MB RH TODAY...AND LARGE AREA OF MID CLOUD
WHICH WILL INHIBIT HEATING. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES OUT THERE FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. SO SINCE
POPS ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY I WILL GO WITH JUST A
20% SINCE MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MAY LEAVE OUT COMPLETELY FOR
THE N COAST AND OUTER BANKS WHERE RH IS LOWEST.

ON FRI THE MODELS AGREE IN DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES OUT OF CANADA. THE NGM WAS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS TO
BRING DEEP RH AND LIFT INTO ESTRN NC AS A COLD FRONT TAKES SHAPE IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS AROUND 20% AS BEST FORCING ON THE ETA/AVN 60 HR CHARTS COMES
INTO PLAY FRI NIGHT. MACHINE TEMPS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
LOCAL SCHEMES.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE INTERESTING AS THE SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE TRENDING TWRDS YSTDYS MRF IN CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID ATLC. THIS IS UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM OCEAN WATERS AND WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE.

CWF: WINDS OVR THE SRN WATERS ARE BIT FRISKY AS I SUSPECTED LAST
NIGHT. THINK SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THIS AM WITH
A DECREASE IN SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. NERLY FLOW TO BECOME SERLY ON
FRI.

.MHX...NONE.

ELARDO