000 
FXUS65 KTWC 090859

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 AM MST SUN JUL 9 2000

SYNOPSIS...A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL 
CONTINUE TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE 
FROM MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SCATTERED 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EACH 
DAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TURN 
EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ROCKY 
MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE 
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  

DISCUSSION...A QUIET MORNING WAS IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST 
ARIZONA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND PW 
VALUES REMAIN IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEBRIS 
CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO FIRE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAY HAVE 
A PROBLEM WITH ANVIL CIRRUS SLOWING DOWN DAYTIME HEATING LATER IN 
THE DAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH 
TO MITIGATE THIS. DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF CELLS...FLASH FLOODING 
SHOULD BE ONLY A LOCAL PROBLEM. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A SIMILIAR DAY TO 
TODAY. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXISTING SHORT TERM FORECAST. 

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO 
CANADA AND IS REPLACED BY A WEAKER SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THIS ALLOWS A 
500 MB HIGH CENTER TO MOVE OVER TO COLORADO BY MID WEEK. A GOOD 
EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE WARMER 
TEMPERATURES AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. FOR NOW THE 
STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 LOOKS GOOD.  

OKULSKI

.TWC...NONE.