000 
FXUS62 KMHX 090648

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 AM EDT SUN JUL 9 2000

HAVING SOME AWIPS DATABASE PROBLEMS...SO AVN MODEL IS THE ONLY 
COMPLETE MODEL WE HAVE WITH BITS AND PIECES OF THE OTHERS. H5 SHORTWAVE 
DROPPING S INTO SC CAUSING SOME SHOWERS OVER RAH'S CWA AS IT 
INTERACTS WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES (PERHAPS SEABREEZE) FROM 
YESTERDAY. FEEL MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND MOVE PAST 
THE CWA BY RELEASE TIME...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE AM LEANING TOWARD 
KEEPING POPS OUT OF TODAY'S FCST. AVN PICKED UP WELL ON THIS UPPER 
FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDENT MOISTURE. THE AVN SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK 
SHORTWAVES IN THE NW UPPER FLOW THRU THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A WARM 
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WHILE MOISTURE IS A BIT LIMITED 
MONDAY AND UVV IS NEGLIBLE...THE WARM TEMPS WILL GENERATE PLENTIFUL 
INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE A SMALL POP...MAINLY FOR ACCOUNT FOR SOME 
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY. TUESDAY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH 
A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE DEEP 
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING WITH MAXES IN THE MIDDLE 
TO UPPER 80S TODAY AND INTO THE 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 

MARINE FCST...NO PROBLEMS TODAY WITH WINDS BEGINNING LIGHT AND 
BECOMING SW. BOTH THE AVN AND THE 30 AND 36 HR ETA BOUNDARY LAYER 
WINDS SHOW SCA CRITERIA WILL REACHED IN THE NORTHERN WATERS 
OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI OFFSHORE AND LEE SIDE TReOF 
IN THE PIEDMONT. WILL ADVERTISE PSBL SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. 

.MHX...NONE.

COLLINS