000 
FXUS64 KMAF 011855
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
154 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2000

HIGH THETA-E AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS W TX/SE NM WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM KMAF'S 12Z SOUNDING AT 1.6". WATER VAPOR SHOWS MOIST
PLUME COVERING THE RGN WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHRTWV TROF'S...ONE NEAR
HEATH CANYON AND ANOTHER NEAR GDP. ETA DEPICTS THIS AS A N/S ORIENTED
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. ATTM VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU DEVELOPING
IN SW TX/SRN NM MTNS...WHILE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING
ACROSS CENTRAL PB WHERE MODIFIED KMAF SOUNDING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS
STILL SHOW WEAK CAP. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUN
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WITH WEAKISH SHRTWV ENERGY EXPECT THAT PARCELS
WILL BE ABLE TO REACH LFC'S (75H) AND WILL KEEP SCT POPS WITH HEAVY
RN TONIGHT. TMW FRONT THAT IS NOW ENTERING THE PANHANDLE IS TO MOVE S
INTO NRN AREA AND EXPECT THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS ONLY SHOW WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT BUT 85H THERMAL
GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE WELL DEFINED AND WEAK STEERING WINDS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RN SCENARIO. FRONT TO REMAIN IN NRN AREAS TMW
BUT WILL MAKE ANOTHER PUSH S EARLY IN THE WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NW-N AND WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS THRU THE EXTENDED.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 21Z TODAY FOR SW TX MTNS. WILL
LIKELY REISSUE WATCH FOR THE NIGHT...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL EXPIRATION
TO DO SO.

MAF  70/85/67/87    3453
LSA  67/8?2/65/86    3553
E41  71/87/68/87    3443
6R6  72/90/70/89    3333
MRF  60/85/60/85    4433
CNM  69/85/67/86    3453

.MAF...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST TEXAS MOUNTAINS UNTIL 21Z.
NM...NONE.

GPM