623 
FXUS63 KIWX 241932
AFDFWA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
232 PM EST WED MAY 24 2000

FCST CHALLENGE IS POP FCST FOR FRI.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED TROF OF LOW PRES JUST TO E OF CWFA.
IN VCNTY OF TROF...SOME CU WAS PRESENT...WITH TREND BEING FOR
DISSIPATION DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.

WITH HI PRES AT SFC AND RDG ALOFT MOVING OVR RGN...WL HAVE MOSTLY
CLR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THRU THU NIGHT.  ATTENTION THIS FCST
PAID TO TSRA POTENTIAL FOR FRI AFT...THEN INTO EXTD.  ETA AND AVN
MODELS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AT F48 WITH BRINGING A WK
SHORTWAVE ACRS RGN ON FRI AND LIFTING STRONGER SHORTWAVE INTO ERN NE
AND NE KS.  NGM SEEMED TO OFFER A FASTER SOLUTION...PRIMARILY WITH
PLAINS SHORTWAVE.  ETA AND AVN SOLUTIONS EXHIBITED GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND THUS PREFERED.  AT THE SFC...ETA AND AVN WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH MOVING WARM FNT TO TN VLY BY F48...WITH
NGM INDICATING A FURTHER NWRD LOCATION.  GIVEN NGM TREND OF SLOWING
WARM FNT...ITS SOLUTION WAS AGAIN THROWN OUT.  WITH WRMFNT STILL WELL
TO THE S OF RGN ON FRI AND ONLY WK SHORTWAVE...WL NOT MENTION POPS
FOR NOW.  WL...HOWEVER...INTRODUCE FOR FRI NIGHT AND KEEP MENTION IN
SAT PD.  WL ALSO ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR SUN IN EXTD.  MON WL BE
DRY.

REGARDING TEMPS...TRAJECTORIES AND T1 TEMP SCHEMES INDICATE COOLER
READINGS THAN FWC AND FAN NUMBERS FOR TONIGHT...BUT WITH WLY FLOW...
WL ONLY CUT A COUPLE OFF VALUES.  WL LEAN TOWARD COOLER FAN NUMBERS
FOR THU...GIVEN NW FLOW.  FWC NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THU NIGHT
AND FRI.

.IWX...NONE.

BARJENBRUCH