235 
FXUS61 KBGM 241334
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
935 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2000

VSBL SAT PIX SHOW MUCH OF RGN IN A RELATIVE DRY SLOT ATTM...OTHER THAN
DEPARTING CONVECTION FAR NERN ZNS.  CURRENT FCST LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET
AS WE SHUD SEE A FAIR AMT OF SUN BEFORE ANY AFTN CONVECTION TRIES TO
REFIRE.

MAIN QUESTIONS FOR THE AFTN ARE WHAT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS AND HOW
MUCH DO LOW LVLS DRY OUT.  AS FAR AS THE FORMER IS CONCERNED...BATCH OF
SHWRS COMING INTO LK ERIE REPRESENTS INITIAL SFC TROF.  THIS FEATURE
CUD PROVIDE THE FIRST SOURCE OF LIFT DURG THE AFTN...WITH SECOND
STRONGER WV LKLY HOLDING OFF TIL THIS EVE.  AS FAR AS MOIST
GOES...STILL FEEL MODELS MAY BE OVER-DRYING THINGS AT LEAST A LTL WITH
SUCH AN ABUNDANCE OF GRND LVL MOIST.  BOTTOM LN IS THAT POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED AND WILL ADD PSBLTY OF STRONG WIND AND HAIL WITH ANY TSRA.
SPEED SHEARING AND UL DIV STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR POT SVR.  

FLOOD WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SATURATED SOILS AND VERY RECENT
HEAVY RAINS.

MAX/S LOOK FINE.  

WRK ZNS OUT.  FINALS COMING SHORTLY.

.BGM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF CNY AND PA ZNS 38/39.

JUREWICZ