000 
FXUS64 KAMA 240937

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
437 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SLOWLY SWD ACRS THE FCST AREA THIS MRNG
BECOMING QSTNRY IN THE SRN TX PNHDL THIS AFTN.  DEW POINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVR OK SO CONSIDERABLE MSTR MAY
ADVECT WRD INTO THE PNHDLS...NORTH OF THE BNDRY...LATER TDA AND
TNGT. SO WITH BNDRY IN THE AREA...MOIST UPSLP DVLPG BEHIND IT...AND
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  WILL FCST HIGHEST
AFTN POPS...30 PERCENT...OVER THE OK PNHDL AND THE NE TX PNHDL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AND CAP WEAKEST.  REST OF AREA WILL HAVE
20 PERCENTERS.  WILL THEN INCR POPS TO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
TNGT WITH DEEPER UPSLP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.  HAVE NOTED THAT
CAP STRENGTH WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG TDA AND TNGT.  THIS MAY LIMIT THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.  BUT IF STORMS CAN BREAK CAP...AGREE
WITH PER SPC GUIDANCE THAT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL.

CONVECTION TNGT WILL PROBABLY DRIVE BNDRY INTO THE SOPLNS ON
THURSDAY WITH PNHDLS RMNG IN THE MOIST ERLY UPSLP COMPONENT. ALTHO
LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THE AMS IN THE AFTN.  AMS
WILL BE PRIMED FOR THE APPROACHING SHRTWV TROF/JET MAX LATE THU.
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR MORE STORMS...SPCLY THUR NITE.
WILL CONT WITH THE 40 TO 50 POPS.

SHRTWV TROF PASSES THE AREA FRI WITH DRIER SW-WRLY DWNSLP COMPONENT
DVLPG IN THE LLVLS BY AFTN.  HENCE...POPS DIMINISH DURG THE DAY.
HWVR...NEXT CDFNT AND WRAP-AROUND UPSLP MSTR EXPECTED FRI NITE INTO
SATURDAY TO JUSTIFY MENTIONING A SLGT CHC OF RAIN.  BY SUNDAY...UPR
RDG BUILDS ACRS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

AMA BE 096/060 083/060 087 07233
DHT BE 090/056 077/056 083 07243=

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SP