971 
FXUS64 KMEG 242018
AFDMEM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
218 PM CST FRI MAR 24 2000

NARROW BAND OF THICKER CLOUDS CURRENTLY BISECTING CWA. THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH 60+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS. AS SUN GOES DOWN...SOME OF
THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AREA TOWARD MORNING...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...AND
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS CURRENTLY IN FORECAST.

FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW. FRONT MAY BECOME HUNG UP ACROSS SRN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CWA. ETA SHOWS CAPES IN 1000-1500 RANGE AND LI OF -2
TO -4. CAN NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION NEAR AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT DURING MAX HEATING. WILL LEAVE NE AR DRY...WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. WILL LOWER POPS 10 PCT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AVN INDICATES FRONT SHOULD START RETURNING NORTH
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AGAIN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP...
BUT WILL HOLD THEM IN THE CHANCE RANGE.

TEMPERATURES...WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT...AS DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING ABOVE FWC PROJECTIONS. SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW ABOUT 3 OR 4
DEGREES COOLING FROM FULL SUN LEVELS TODAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT BOTH
MODELS ADVERTISING. DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE LOOKS
GOOD AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP A LITTLE. SUNDAY HIGHS AT MEMPHIS LOOK A
LITTLE LOW COMPARED TO MKL...AND WILL BUMP MEM HIGHS UP A NOTCH. IF
FRONT RETURNS QUICKER ON SUNDAY...FORECAST MAXES TOO HIGH.

EXTENDED...MODELS PROVIDE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON PRECIP CHANCES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL DEFER TO NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE. LOOKS WET BY
MIDDLE OF WEEK AS SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW FINALLY KICKS OUT. TEMPS TO
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH PERIOD. 10

.MEM...NONE.