122 
FXUS64 KMEG 240949
AFDMEM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
348 AM CST FRI MAR 24 2000

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING. TRAILING SHORTWAVE EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AR. BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS APPROACHING
EASTERN AR AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. NQA AND LZK 88D RADARS ALONG
WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM
THESE CLOUDS. NQA 88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 35 TO 45 KT SOUTH
WINDS AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...THUS MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE.

00Z MODEL RUNS SIMILAR IN FORECAST WEATHER FOR OUR AREA NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS ALSO IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL
NOT BE MAKING MUCH CHANGE.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BY 00Z. THUS GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH.
SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH OUR CWFA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS EXCEPT NORTHEAST MS. ETA
FORECAST ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWFA TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF 600 TO 1200 J/KG. THUS MENTION OF POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON STILL OK FOR THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. FWC
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST
AR BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MENTIONED
FOR ALL ZONES. WILL GO A LITTLE WARMER ON LOWS THAN FORECAST BY FWC
MOS AS THINK DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MORE THAN
SHOWN BY MOS.

SATURDAY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MENTIONED ENTIRE AREA. LATER FORECASTS MAY BE
ABLE TO LIMIT THIS TO THE MORNING IN NORTHEAST AR AND MO BOOTHEEL...
BUT WILL NOT DO SO AT THIS TIME. FWC HIGHS OK.

NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST
AVN/MRF SHOWING FRONT PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH BRINGING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION SOONER THAN WE PRESENTLY HAVE IN OUR
FORECAST. WILL HOLD OFF ATTM IN MAKING MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED.
WILL HOWEVER MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN HALF OF
CWFA ALL DAY MONDAY AND NOT LIMIT JUST TO THE AFTERNOON.

.MEM...NONE


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