000 
FXUS63 KFGF 240829
AFDFAR

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
225 AM CST FRI MAR 24 2000

.CURRENT OVERVIEW...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND 
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST CENTRAL NODAK. MOISTURE LADEN 
AIR WITH TD/S 45 AND HIGHER THROUGHOUT FA...ALONG WITH AREA OF RAIN 
MOVING NORTH IN DECENT H850 WAA ZONE. ETA MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BEST 
HANDLE AT INITIALIZATION TIME...SO WILL FOLLOW ITS PATH OF 
ENLIGHTENMENT.

.SHORT TERM...
SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FA TODAY...AND HELP TO ADVECT IN DRIER 
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL MENTION PATCHY 
MORNING FOG IN MOISTURE LADEN AIR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY DENSE FOG. 
PWATS DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS FA...WITH BEST DRYING FROM 
THE RRV WEST. FURTHER EAST IN MOIST AIR...SFC TROUGH AND SOUTHERN 
VORT MAX COULD HELP TRIGGER SOME -SHRA ACTIVITY. VORT MAX IN 
SOUTHERN STREAM WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT WEAK 
PVA SHOULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS IN MN ZONES. WESTERN FA SHOULD SEE 
SOME SCATTERED -SHRA THIS MORNING...BEFORE PASSAGE OF SFC TROUGH. 
NVA BUILDS INTO WESTERN HALF OF FA BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SUNNY 
BREAKS POSSIBLE. TEMPS SHOULD REACH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EVERYWHERE.

.LONG TERM...
STRONG CAA AT H850 WORKS INTO ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH 
POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO REGION AS 
WELL...SO LOW LEVEL CAA ALONG WITH DRYING COLUMN SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY 
MAJOR PRECIP. GOOD H850-500 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPWARD 
VERTICAL MOTION IN NORTHERN FA WITH POTENT H5 VORT MAX COULD HELP 
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH.  
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TOO MUCH LOW 
LEVEL WARM AIR TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES 
MIXING IN ACROSS THE BORDER. GOOD LINKAGE OCCURS AFTER 00Z...SO 
WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE BRISK FROM THE NORTHWEST EVERYWHERE. 
SATURDAY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY EVERYWHERE AS NVA AND DRIER 
AIR BUILD IN. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN PAST DAYS...AS 
WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUES ALONG WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW1. 


.FGF...NONE.

KELLENBENZ/BERG