000 
FXUS63 KTOP 142101
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
300 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2000

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WAS TAKING AIM 
AT THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WAVE IS ALMOST IN THE SAME 
LOCATION AS THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAKER ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WAS 
YESTERDAY...ACROSS MONTANA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING WAVE OVER 
MISSOURI WILL GIVE SOME CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE SHOULD MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

STRATUS OVER OKLAHOMA COULD ALSO COME UP TONIGHT ALONG THE TURNPIKE 
CORRIDOR AS 850 MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES 
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AVN STILL SHOWING 50S DEW POINTS TO BE IN PLACE 
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS 
IN THE LOW 50S IN OKLAHOMA...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. 

SURFACE TROF/FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO 
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LI/S ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT IN THE ZERO TO MINUS 2 RANGE...DIFFLUENT FLOW...AND 
APPROACHING WAVE ALOFT/STEEPING LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE AMPLE FOR 
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WAVE MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. 
THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO A MIX OF RAIN AND 
SNOW AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING 
BEFORE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. 

TEMPERATURES WILL GO FOR A MIX OF FWC AND FAN NUMBERS THOUGH THE 
PERIOD. WILL GO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANqCE TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE 
TURNPIKE.

.TOP...NONE.

JW