013 
FXUS65 KBYZ 140905
AFDBIL

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
245 AM MST TUE MAR 14 2000

.TDY AND WED...
FAST FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL BRING A SERIES OF DISTRUBANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE THE MASSIVE HUDSON LOW GENERATES SOME
BLOCKING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED
ONSHORE INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND IS BEGINNING TO BE
SHEARED APART AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER IDAHO/MONTANA. BY
18Z THE RIDGE WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST ACROSS THE STATE WHILE
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES CYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT
WITH TODAYS SYSTEM WILL REACH CENTRAL MONTANA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
MODELS EXPECT SOME LEE SIDE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHICH
TRACKS FROM KYYC TO KDIK LATER TODAY. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPE SO PRECIPITATION WISE IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
LIMITED EVENT. THE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION WITH SURFACE
GRADIENTS INCREASING AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS...CLOSER
TO 50 KNOTS IN THE EAST. BOTH AVN AND ETA SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING
HOURS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WOULD BE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT THE EAST
BUT TIMING OF FRONT MAY BE LATE ENOUGH TO LIMIT HOOKUP IF SUBSIDENCE
IS NOT AS STRONG AS PROGGED.  FOR WEDNESDAY COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO
THE STATE AND DRAMATICALLY INCREASES THE LAPSE RATES. WITH A CANADIAN
FRONT BACKING INTO THE STATE WOULD EXPECT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE TO COMBINE
WITH THE INSTABILITY FOR SUBSTANTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS CAPTURED ALL OF THE DETAILS REALLY WELL. BORSUM

.THU...FRI...AND SAT...
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN SETTING UP IN EXTENDED PER LATEST RUN OF
MRF. LATEST MRF CONSISTENT WITH RIDGE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND DRY
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. WILL LET EXTENDED BE AS IS. SPRINGER/BORSUM

BIL BJEWE /054 035/041 026/043 029/047 029/054 59224 54
LVM BJEWE /052 034/045 025/045 027/049 025/054 59334 54
HDN BJEWE /056 034/042 026/044 028/048 027/056 59224 54
MLS BJBWE /055 032/038 023/039 025/046 025/056 59023 54
4BQ BJBWE /054 031/037 022/039 024/045 025/054 59023 54
BHK BJBWE /052 029/036 021/037 023/045 023/052 59023 54
SHR BJBWE /054 031/042 020/044 022/049 025/055 59224 54