823 
FXUS62 KJAX 061400
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
900 AM EST SUN FEB 6 2000

ZONES...BUBBLE HIGH OVER N FL AND IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR DRAINAGE DOWN
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS AM PERRY JUST DROPPED TO 20 AT 8 AM...OCF
AND VLD TO 23. WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND PLENTY OF THAT OLD SOUTHERN
SUNSHINE...THE TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING RAPIDLY THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THE ALREADY COLDER AREAS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
UNTIL JUST AFTER 10 AM...BUT THE MAJORITY OF US SHOULD CRACK THE
FREEZING MARK IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

MESO-ETA DOES SOME WEIRD THINGS WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTING IT
TO NEAR KABY AT 1 PM AND THEN TO NEAR THE CHANDLER ISLANDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEND TO THINK THE BUBBLE HIGH & TIGHTER MESO-ETA GRID
SPACING IS IS CONFUSING THE ISSUE AND THAT THE LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE
THE WAY TO GO WRT WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTION TODAY. WILL GO WITH THE ETA
SOLUTION OF BRING THE HIGH TO NEAR ABY BY 00 UTC...AND THEN NWD
TO NEAR BHM OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT
MODEL RUN COMES IN TO NAIL THINGS DOWN BETTER. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE INTERIOR SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY WILL DEFINITELY BE INCLUDED
IT JUST A MATTER OF THE HIGH POSITIONING...COLD AIR FLOW AND LIKELY
HOOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DECIDE HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO GO.

MARINE...JUST GOT A REPORT FROM THE SEA LOVE III 15 MILES EAST OF
ST. AUGUSTINE AND IT CORRELATES WELL WITH A SHIP REPORT EAST OF DAB
AND THE LOCAL BUOY OBS. WINDS ARE LIGHT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...WIND WAVES 1
TO 3 FEET WITH A 4 TO 5 FOOT GROUND SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE
CURRENT MARINE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AND IS IN LINE WITH THE MODELS.
ILL ADJUST THE WORDING OF THE MARINE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL GO WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT WIND WAVES WITH A 4 FOOT
NORTHEAST GROUND SWELL.

.JAX...
GA...RED FLAG WARNING THRU SUNSET TODAY.
     FREEZE WARNING THRU 10 AM.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING THRU SUNSET WESTERN CWA.
     FREEZE WARNING...FOR ALL EXCEPT FLAGLER...THRU 10 AM.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SANDRIK