265 
FXUS63 KTOP 272114
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
314 PM CST THU JAN 27 2000

...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAIN CONCERN...

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER OK WITH DEFORMATION INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. 
WENT WITH THE ETA FOR THIS FORECAST FOR IT HAS BEEN HANDLING THE 
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS THE CWA VERY WELL TODAY. DESPITE SOME GOOD 
RETURNS ON RADAR ONLY PLACES IN THE CWA RECEIVING SNOW HAVE BEEN 
WEST OF HIGHWAY 81. FEEL AS EVENING PROGRESSES THAT DRY AIR WILL BE 
OVERCOME AS UPPER SYSTEM PULLS EAST AHEAD OF MID LEVEL 700 MB TROF.

SATURATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 285 K SURFACE SUGGEST THAT NORTHEAST 
KANSAS SHOULD SATURATE BELOW 740 MB THIS EVENING. BEST FORCING TO 
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT A PIECE OF ENERGY HAD MOVED UP 
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS INCREASED THE 
SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. UNTIL DRY AIR IS OVERCOME AREAS OF 
NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENING. 
WILL GO FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES AND 1 TO 2 
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...AROUND AN 
INCH FROM I70 NORTH.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW BECOMES PARKED OVER THE PLAINS 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA. WILL 
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME SO WILL BROAD BRUSH POPS THROUGH SATURDAY FOR 
LIGHT SNOW. 

DO NOT FORESEE MUCH IN THE WAY FOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES WITH LOWS IN 
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

.TOP...SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY SOUTH OF 
A COUNCIL GROVE TO OTTAWA LINE.

JW