000 
TTAA00 KILM 271937
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 PM EST THU JAN 27 2000
 
THE ETA MODEL...ITS 48 HOURS GOOD UNTIL SAT AM...IS TIMED BETWEEN 
THE FASTER AVN AND THE VERY SLOW NGM. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 
PESSIMISTIC...ALTHOUGH EVEN THAT DOESN'T LOOK SO BAD...AND HOPE I'M 
WRONG.  
 
TEMPS ALOFT ARE MODERATING...AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAS ALL 
BUT ENDED AS THE CIRCULATION FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NY GETS 
DISPLACED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM. ONE MORE LITTLE RIPPLE CIRCULATING 
MAINLY OVER NE NC MAY GET THE WIND JUST A LITTLE STIRRED UP 
TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE SFC PRES GRADIENT RELAXING...DEW PTS IN 
SINGLE DIGITS...AND NOT ENOUGH CIRRUS ADVECTING IN ON THE SOUTHERN 
STREAM TO MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE...EXPECT NEAR RECORD LOWS 
TONIGHT...MID TEENS. WATCH YOUR PIPES!  

CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER OK AND E TX IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING 
SHORT WAVE THAT WILL ADVECT A LITTLE HIGH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO 
THE FA. THE PARENT TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST IS WILL STAY THERE 
THROUGH SUN...AND THE GRADUALLY BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA 
WILL BRING A CONTINUING SLOW WARMING TREND.

PROVIDED ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED IN FRI NIGHT AND SAT FOR 
PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ONLY THE AVN GETS IT THAT FAR EAST 
FRI NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SNOW CONTINUES INTO SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH 
MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY LAYER AREA SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...EXPECT 
DYNAMIC COOLING AS PRECIP FALLS INTO THE DRY LAYER AND DO NOT EXPECT 
FREEZING PRECIP. ISENTROPIC LIFT NOT TOO EXCITING...10 KTS...WITH 
ONLY GRADUAL MOISTENING. SNOW THICKNESSES MOSTLY IN THE MIX RANGE 
CONTINUES THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS 
THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS NE AND AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER 
AL/GA SAT...WITH STRONGER UVV AND HIGHER RH...AND RAIN ON SUN.    

CWF...NW WIND BELOW SCA WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SE SUN...SPEEDS 
MAINLY 10-20 KT THRUOUT PERIOD.
 
PRELIM NUMBERS...
ILM ES 016 040/025 042 19003
FLBO ES 015 040/027 040 19005
MYR EC 018 041/028 043 19004
.ILM...NONE.

MATHESON