000 
TTAA00 KABQ 101539 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...retransmission
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MST FRI DEC 10 1999

MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL MODERATE
MINIMUM TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE WELL. MODEL
INTERPRETATIONS SUGGEST ETA HAS THE FAVORED INITIALIZATION...WHILE
AVN/NGM ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENT WITH THE INITIAL PATTERNS. LOOKING AT
THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE AND CURRENT SITUATION...SYNOPTIC PATTERNS...AN
NGM/ETA SOLUTION SEEMS MOST REASONABLE. THICKNESS VALUES REMAIN IN
THE 552-540 dM RANGE SUGGESTING COLDER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS AND MOST
LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE AREAWIDE BEING SNOW.

THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE DOES THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRACK
ACROSS THE CWA? THE ETA AGAIN HAS THE TRADITIONAL SOUTHERN BIAS AND
THE NGM APPEARS TO HAVE DEPICTED THE NORTHERN TRACK LIMITS. WILL USE
A COMPROMISE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AVN APPEARS TOO FAST. NGM
APPEARS AGGRESSIVE ON THE LAYER MOISTURE...ETA ON THE DRY
SIDE...AGAIN COMPROMISE IS IN ORDER. 10/00Z MRF QUICK GLANCE SHOWS
500 MB LOW DIPS INTO FAR WEST TX/BIG BEND REGION...LENDING SOME
SUPPORT THE CURRENT ETA SOLUTION. ALL THIS POINTS TO WINTER LIKE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MOUNTAINS AND NORTH WILL GET SNOW...BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STORM WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE FORMING SATURDAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MANZANO AND SACRAMENTO RANGES.

EXTENDED FORECAST INCLUDES CLEARING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY...WITH A MODEST WARM UP. 

KMV

ABQ BE 042/025 037/023 039 33024
SAF BE 039/019 036/017 038 33025
TCC BE 048/025 036/026 040 330p24

.ABQ...NONE.