453 
FXUS62 KILM 231918
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
215 PM EST TUE NOV 23 1999

MODELS SHIFT H5 RIDGE VERY LITTLE THRU 12Z THU. THEREFORE THRU NEXT 
48 HRS...DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED WELL N OF THE AREA. NOT OUT OF THE 
QUESTION TO SEE SOME WEAK PVA SLIP IN FROM THE E OR SE ON THE SRN 
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION BUT DONT SEE ANYTHING 
IMMINENT IN WV. LLVL ELY FLOW WILL CONT AS SFC HI PRES REMAINS TO 
OUR NE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ETA/NGM BRING A FRONT TO WRN NC BY 12Z 
THU AND ARE QUITE SIMILAR IN TIMING. AVN WASHES THE FRONT OUT LATER 
THU BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE CWA AND CONTINUES WITH A PATTERN OF 
ONSHORE FLOW INTO FRI.

SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 60. DEWPOINTS 
60-65 ACROSS THE CWA AT 18Z...AND WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGE WOULD 
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FWC GUIDANCE 
LOOKS GOOD WED AS ENOUGH SUN SHOULD BE AROUND TO BUMP TEMPS TO MID/ 
UPPER 70S AGAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS 3RD AND 4TH PDS AS MODELS 
INDICATE A DECREASE IN 1000-850 MB THICKNESS FIELD.

AS FOR POPS...SEE NO FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ATTM BUT DO FEEL 
THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AT LEAST NEXT COUPLE OF AFTNS 
SO WILL MENTION. WHETHER OR NOT POPS WILL BE INCLUDED TONIGHT 
DEPENDS ON RADAR COVERAGE AT PRESS TIME. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS BEST 
CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER WILL BE NE SC BUT WILL MAKE DECISION 
LATER.

CWF...SEAS RUNNING 6-8 FT AT BUOYS 41004 AND FPSN7. LONG ONSHORE 
FETCH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SO WILL LEAVE SCA IN PLACE DUE TO 
SEAS. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

PRELIM CCF:
ILM BB 059/078 058/073 056 111
FLO BB 059/078 058/074 055 111
MYR BB 058/076 057/072 055 111

ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC.

MORGAN