819 
FXUS66 KPQR 221533
AFDPQR

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 AM PDT FRI OCT 22 1999

CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. TODAY TO BE THE LAST REAL NICE DAY.
SOME CHANGES ALREADY TAKING PLACE. OFF-SHORE SURFACE COMPONENT WEAKER
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE GORGE WHERE KTTD-KDLS WAS -5.6 MB AT
12Z. THIS EXPLAINS THE 15 KT E WIND AT KTTD. HOWEVER...AT 15Z THE
WIND HAD ABATED. OTHER STORY IS ALONG THE COAST. STRATUS/FOG ALL THE
WAY UP TO EXTREME S WA COAST AT 15Z. 00Z NGM SURFACE PROGS DID QUITE
WELL VALID 12Z THIS AM. ETA ONCE AGAIN TOO STRONG WITH OFF-SHORE
GRADIENT. MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OFF-SHORE GRADIENT TODAY THUS
COAST SHOULD SEE LIMITED CLEARING. THICKNESS RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON SO VALLEY RECORDS SAFE TODAY. INVERSION
NOT AS STEEP THIS MORNING...BUT LOWER THICKNESS AND 850 TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHT COOLING. ALSO SURGE OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM CALIFORNIA
TO TEMPER AVAILABLE SUNLIGHT. NEXT PROBLEM IS TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM.
250 MB ANALYSIS AT 12Z SHOWED STRONGEST WIND (JET) JUST INSIDE
140W...ON THE FRONT SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH. 135 KT REPORT JUST OFF
QUEEN CHARLOTTES. FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMING MORE N-S AND WAVE ACTION
MAY WORK TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST MESSAGE FROM
SATELLITE GUYS (SPENES) SAYS FRONT MAY GET A KICK FROM A SPEED MAX
CURRENTLY NEAR 150W. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM 00Z AVN SHOWED A
LITTLE FASTER TIMING COMPARED TO THU 12Z RUN. INCLINATION IS TO
BELIEVE A LITTLE SLOWER IS BETTER BUT WILL NOT CHANGE CURRENT
FORECAST. MARINE CONDITIONS STILL BENIGN...BUT BUOY 029 HAS GONE TO A
S WIND. SELY GRADIENTS TO PICK UP TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR AWHILE LONGER.                          WEISHAAR

AST 0-7  PDX 002  SLE 002  EUG 002

.PDX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS AM NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST.