687 
FXUS62 KMHX 041811
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
211 PM EDT MON OCT 4 1999

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH EASTERN TN. AREA OF 
CLEARING ACROSS AREA FROM EARLIER HAS FILLED IN. RADAR SHOWS WIDELY 
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS 
MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. THE LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING 
THROUGH GREENSBORO IN NC IS WEAKENING...WHILE SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE 
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF SC W OF FLORENCE. THE RAIN IN SC IS NEAR 
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO AN UPPER JET...PROVIDING SOME ENHANCED 
LIFT. THE MODELS PROG THE JET TO LIFT NE ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH 
COULD YIELD SOME ENHANCED LIFT HERE AS WELL. MODIFIED MHX SOUNDING 
YIELDS CAPE 0F 2500 J/KG WITH -6 LI. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE 
AREA ARE LIKELY AS THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHES. GUSTY WINDS 
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SVR WX NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE MODELS (ETA/NGM) AREA IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY...AND 
BOTH AGREE IN MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. JUST 
A SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE NGM BEING A BIT FASTER. THE 
MODELS SHOW THE BEST OMEGA MOVING INTO THE AREA AT 00Z. THE SLIGHT 
TIMING DIFFERENCE ALLOWS THE ETA TO CARRY PRECIP LATER INTO THE NIGHT 
THAN THE NGM. BEST RAINS SHOULD BE GETTING INTO AREA AFTER 6PM. WILL 
GO WITH LIKELY POPS DIMINISHING LATE. SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE 
CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO THINGS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT 
TUE...BUT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ETA IS 
BRINGING IN A BLOB OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW THAT LINGERS 
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED. IT SEEMS TO ORIGINATE IN THE CLOUDY 
AREA ON SATELLITE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS OH AND IN. BUT IT SEEMS TO 
BE A BIT TOO SLOW IN MOVING IN...AND GETTING OUT. NOT SURE ABOUT 
IT...BUT WILL NOT TOTALLY IGNORE IT...AS MOISTURE COULD BE TRAPPED 
UNDER AN INVERSION. ETA ALSO MAINTAINS MORE TROFINESS ACROSS THE 
CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORN. THEREFORE WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY 
TUE NIGHT INTO WED. 

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND CLOSE TO NGM 
MOS...AS COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT WILL NOT FILTER IN UNTIL LATE AND
CLOUDINESS LINGERING THRU MORNING. NGM MOS MIGHT BE A BIT ON THE 
COOL SIDE TOMORROW. LOCAL SCHEME BASED ON ETA GAVE HIGHER NUMBERS. 
MOS LOOKS OK FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.   

CWF...WINDS CURRENTLY 15 TO 20 KT UP NORTH AND 10 TO 15 KT SOUTH. 
MODELS INITIALIZE PRETTY GOOD. THEN THEY BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH NGM 
HAVING HIGHER SPEEDS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 
SCA. WILL KEEP WINDS N BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE...BECOMING NE TUE 
NIGHT INTO WED.

.MHX...NONE.

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