563 
FXUS62 KILM 211358
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
955 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999

12Z RAOB PLOTS HAVE ADEQUATE LOW/MID LVL MOIST AS FAR WEST AS KFFC 
W/ DWPT DEP < 5 AT H85/H70. NGM HAS 12Z PRECIP H2O OF 1.5+ AS FAR AS 
100 MILES INLAND OF SE COAST. H2O VAP IMG INDICATING STRONG DRY AIR 
PUNCH FROM SW INTO EASTERN SC/SE NC ATTM. DESPITE THIS...MOST OF 
LIFT ALREADY NE OF AREA AS PREVIOUS MODELS FAILED TO DEVELOP STRONG 
S/W MOVING NE OF AREA THIS MORNING. COMPOSITE OF AREA 88D/S SHOWING 
WIDESPRESD RAIN HAS ENDED OVR WESTERN 1/2 CWFA W/ ISOLATED -SHRA TO 
THE SW. PCPN EXPECTED TO END AROUND NOON OVR REMAINDER OF CWA W/ 
BULK OF PCPN REMAINING TO THE NE THIS AFTN. W/ APPROACHING FRONT 
LATER TODAY EXPECT SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO 
CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR CWA. THEREFORE...WILL DISCONTINUE FFA FOR 
GEORGETOWN...HORRY...MARION AND DILLON COUNTIES IN SC...AND 
ROBESON...BLADEN...COLUMBUS...BRUNSWICK...PENDER AND NEW HANOVER 
COUNTIES IN NC.

WILL KEEP CAT POPS WHERE RAIN IS FALLING AT ISSUANCE...ENDING BY 
EARLY AFTN. POPS 30-40% AFT THAT ALL AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AFTN. POSSIBLE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND WILL ADD CLOUD COVER. 

CWF: FPSN7 STILL AT 6 FT AND EXPECT SWELLS FROM GERT/STRONGER WINDS 
ASSOC W/ SHRA TO CONTINUE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR 
TODAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THE ENTIRE FP WHILE WINDS 
DIFFICULT TO FCST ATTM.

.ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE SC TO SURF CITY NC.

PURDY