906 
FXUS62 KMHX 150548
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
147 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999

WILL HOPE FOR THE BEST...BUT PREPARE FOR THE WORST AS FLOYD APPEARS
HEADED FOR THE NC COAST. EVEN IF THE STORM DOESNT MAKE LANDFALL IN
OUR CWA...WE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE MAJOR AFFECTS INCLUDING WIND...
FLOODING...BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. OF THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS...NGM SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST FEEL FOR THE SYSTEM AS ETA SEEMS
TO TREAT THE HURRICANE LIKE A WINTER-TYPE SYSTEM AFTER ABOUT 36
HRS...SO WILL DISCOUNT THE ETA. BASED ON THE TPC/NGM TRACK...WOULD
EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE INLAND HIGH WIND WATCH WHICH
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING BY THE DAY SHIFT AS WE GET WITHIN 12
HOURS OF THE ONSET OF THE HIGH WINDS. FLOOD THREAT IS ALSO A MAJOR
CONCERN WITH NGM SHOWING 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WED NIGHT.

WILL MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO ZONES AND MARINE FCST FOLLOWING THE 4
AM NHC CONFERENCE CALL.

.MHX...HURRICANE WARNING ENTIRE COAST.
       FLOOD WATCH EXCEPT FOR OUTER BANKS.
       INLAND HIGH WIND WATCH FOR CSTL PLAINS

$$

COLLINS