551 
FXUS64 KLZK 112039
AFDLIT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 1999

PERSISTANT CLOUDS OVER THE STATE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES FAIRLY 
UNIFORM AND COOLER THAN EXPECTED. DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DECREASE 
SOMEWHAT AFTER NIGHTFALL. EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE NORTHWEST WHERE 
CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. 

ATTENTION TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY LATE TONIGHT NORTHWEST 
PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL BEGIN TO RECEIVE SOME THUNDERSHOWERS AS 
CONVECTION MARCHES THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS 
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON MOISTURE CONTENT AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE 
ETA BEING THE WETTEST AND FASTEST...AND THE NGM BEING SLOWEST. 
BELIEVE THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH NW AR BY NOON...DIVIDE THE STATE 
NE TO SW BY 00Z AND PASS TO THE SRN BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY 
MORNING. MORE LIMITED MOISTURE ON AVN/NGM MODELS MAKE ME CAUTIOUS OF 
GOING MUCH ABOVE MOS ON POPS. MOS TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...ALTHOUGH 
THEY MAY ERR A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER 
TOMORROW. NOTICABLY COOLER TEMPS ON MONDAY. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT 
CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE STATE MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR 
SOME POSSIBLE OVERRUNNING FROM FRONT WHICH SLOWS A LITTLE AS IT 
DIVES SOUTH. THEN GOOD DRYING BEHIND FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 
PUSHES IN AND HOLDS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.   /50

.LIT...NONE