880 
FXUS63 KILX 162010
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT MON AUG 16 1999

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FM MSP TO NC IOWA TO SE NEBRASKA WITH
70+ DEWPOINTS POOLING ALONG FRONT ACRS WRN IA. VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT TO
FRONT OVR PAST 6 HOURS WITH SCT -SHRA AHEAD OF FRONT FM ERN IA TO SRN
WI. FCST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WL BE PCPN CHANCES AS FRONT APPROACHES.

ETA/NGM/AVN ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF FRONT. JET ENERGY
ACRS NRN GREAT LAKES WL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GOOD EWRD PUSH TO NRN
PORTION OF SYSTEM...WHILE ONLY WEAK NRLY PUSH TO FRONT WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT OF FRONT ACRS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. END RESULT WL BE FRONT
BECOMING W-E ORIENTED ACRS IL OVR NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE MOVING INTO OHIO
VALLEY AND WASHING OUT. BEST DYNAMICS STAY WELL NORTH AREA...SO ONLY 30
POPS WARRENTED AHEAD OF AND ALONG FRONT THIS FAR SOUTH. GOOD MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT TONIGHT DEPICTED ON ETA WITH CAPES 2000+ AND
LI/S TO -2 ACRS WC IL BY 12Z. WLD EXPECT PCPN TO REFIRE ALONG FRONT
LATE THIS EVE NW SECTIONS...TOWARD MORN CRL. 

HI PRES BUILDS BACK INTO NW IL BEHIND FRONT TUE. WL LEAVE LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES ERLY MORN NW SECTIONS...MORN IN CRL. FRONT TO BE ACRS
CRL-SE AREAS DURING AFT AND WL BRING THUNDER/SHOWER CHANCES BACK INTO
FCST FOR CRL-SE AFT AND LINGER INTO ERLY EVE SE. CAPES BACK UP TO 3000+
WITH LI/S TO -6 ALONG FRONT TUE ACRS SE. CAPPED ATMOS FARTHER S ACRS
SRN IL. 

MORE IMPRESSIVE S/WV TO COME DOWN FM UPPER MIDWEST WED INTO ERLY
THU...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION. THIS DIGS ANOTHER
TROF ACRS ERN U.S. AND ALLOWS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS WEST. HI PRES TO
DOMINATE REMAINDER OF FCST PERIOD WITH PC SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS WITH
NW FLOW. FIRST INDICATION LATER OUT SHOWS RIDGE GRADUALLY MAKING EWRD
PROGRESSION...WHICH WLD PROVIDE WARMUP FOR WEEKEND. 

FAN NUMBERS COOLER THAN FWC AND WL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NUMBERS
DAYTIME...WARMER NIGHTTIME. HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING TEMPS WL GET AS
HIGH AS FWC THINKS TMRW AS WE RETURN TO MORE WRLY/NWRLY FLOW SFC FLOW
BEHIND FRONT.

PRELIMINARY CCF

SPI BE 066/085 064/082 065 81330
PIA BE 067/084 063/080 064 81320
DEC BE 066/085 063/082 064 81330
CMI BE 065/085 062/081 063 81330
MTO BE 066/087 065/083 066 81232
LWV BE 065/088 066/084 067 81232


.ILX...NONE.


PLAHMER