656 
FXUS64 KLIX 071945
AFDNEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 1999

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1007MB LOW OVER IOWA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS WAS LOCATED FROM EAST
TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A 1019MB HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. 500MB UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST PRODUCING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THAT LAYER. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN OREGON WITH SHARP RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MORE DIGGING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN OREGON.

MODELS INITIALIZED OK CONCERNING OUR FORECAST AREA. SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OREGON WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY 00Z IN THE
MID AND UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z DUE TO THE REBUILDING OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE EAST GULF PRODUCING SOUTHERLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. ERGO...SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS MOVES IN PLACE. WILL
NOT SPECIFY TIME OF POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.8 INCHES SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING IN VALUES
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES SUNDAY.

NUMBERS FROM FWC LOOK PRETTY GOOD. WILL KEEP THE 40 PERCENT POPS IN
FOR SUN AND MON OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

HERE ARE SOME NUMBERS TO PONDER.

MCB  73/95/73/95 1223
BTR  76/94/76/94 1324
MSY  77/93/77/93 2424
BIX  80/94/79/95 3424

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

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