452 
FXUS62 KCHS 071827
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
227 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO POP IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME TYPE WIDELY
SCATTERED/OR ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR EVENING PORTION OF FORECAST FOR
SE GA COUNTIES.

NGM APPARENTLY DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE
GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AS NOTED BY AREA OF NVA OVER THE
AREA WHERE SATELLITE DEPICTS HEALTHY TSTMS. NGM IMPROVES WITH
TIME AND COMES CLOSER TO AVN/ETA BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 36 HOURS.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO AVN/ETA SOLUTION. FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CWA.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD WITH
BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 90S AT MOST PLACES WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. WILL NOT
ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAVE IT UP TO MID SHIFT TO
MAKE A FINAL DECISION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MIDDLE
70S EXCEPT NEAR 80 COAST.

EXTENDED...WITH FRONT IN THE AREA...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO UPPER 70S COAST.

CWF...HI PRES WILL DRIFT SE OF THE WATERS TNGT AND SUN AS A DECENT
SW PG DEVELOPS. H85 AND BL WINDS INCREASE QUITE A BIT SUN...THEN
PEAK OUT SUN NIGHT. ATTM...AM PLANNING TO INC WINDS/SEAS TO JUST BLO
SCA CRIT COND SUN NIGHT. PLAN TO BREAK OUT OFFSHORE GA WATERS WITH
HIER WINDS/SEAS DUE TO DECENT OFFSHORE PG. AS TAIL OF H85 JET PULLS E
OF THE AREA MON AND CD FNT APPROACHES...EXPECT PG TO DECREASE AT
LEAST OVER N PTN. WL VEER WINDS TO W ON MON AHEAD OF CD FNT. ON
EXTENDED...PLAN TO STALL FNT OVER SC WATERS TUE INTO WED...THEN SHIFT
N OF AREA BY THU. WL KEEP COND BLO SCA CRIT.

PRELIM CCF
CHS  BB  075/095 076/093 076 30122
CHL  BB  081/090 080/090 079 30122
NBC  BB  078/094 078/092 077 30122
SAV  BB  073/094 074/093 075 30232

.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

JH/TJR