197 
FXUS63 KMQT 070210
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1010 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 1999

FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH 
APPROACH OF WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

NOW... 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM EASTERN NORTH 
DAKOTA DOWN TO NEAR CHICAGO. LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK SHOWS A 
STRING OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT FROM NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 
WESTERN WISCONSIN. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION FIRING 
ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA IS ADVECTING INTO THE U.P. WITH THE 
UPPER FLOW OUT OF ABOUT 300 DEGREES. SURFACE WIND OVER THE FORECAST 
AREA IS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH A WEAK HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN 
U.P.

OVERNIGHT... SURFACE LOW IN NORTH DAKOTA WILL DEEPEN AND HEAD FOR 
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL 
ADVANCE INTO WESTERN U.P. BY 12Z.  ASSOCIATED 500MB TROF WILL EXTEND 
FROM SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z... AND HIGH 
1000-500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND 700-300MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT AND 
PRECIPITATION WONT ARRIVE UNTIL DAYTIME SATURDAY... BUT 
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN U.P. COUNTIES LATE 
TONIGHT.  DESPITE CURRENT CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN... MODEL QPFS KEEP THE U.P. DRY 
UNTIL THE 06-12Z PERIOD. THIS IDEA MAY BE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SINCE 
THE 700 AND 500MB FLOW IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT... 
WHICH MAKES FOR SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 
50S... WARMEST IN THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS AND HIGHER WINDS 
WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.MQT...NONE.

ES