708 
FXUS62 KILM 061837
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
235 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 1999

...TEMP VARIATIONS OVR WEEKEND AND INCREASING CHC OF PCPN IN 
EXTENDED WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS DISC...   

SCT CU ACRS CWFA IN LIMITED LLVL MOIST. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT 
W/ UPPER ULVL FEATURES AS TROUGH REMAINS OVR WEST COAST DESPITE CUT 
OFF LOW KICKING OUT...BUILDING RIDGE OVR CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE CANADA S ALONG APPAL MNTS BY 00Z MON. ALL 
MODELS KEEP ATMOS MODERATELY DRY THROUGH WEEKEND W/ NO DISCERNIBLE 
TRIGGER MECHANISM...AND WEAK ULVL SUPPORT. SO I HAVE OPTED FOR PC 
SKIES OVR WEEKEND AND NO MENTION OF PCPN. GUID CLOSE BUT WILL LEAN 
IN FAVOR OF WARMER FWC GIVING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND S/SW COMPONENT 
OF WIND.    

DEVLP SFC LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z MON AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALONG 
EAST COAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CWFA SUNDAY EVEN. 
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CARRY ON INTO THE EXTENDED SERIES OF IMPULSES 
COMBINE WITH MOIST PLUME FROM GULF REGION SO WILL MENTION CHC OF 
TSRA DAYS 3 THRU 5. 

CWF: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK SFC 
TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY INTERACT W/ AN UPPER AIR 
DISTURBANCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN EVEN 
AND NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH MON NIGHT AND TUE SO WILL KEEP 
CHC OF PCPN IN FCST.

PRELIM CCF:
ILM BB 073/095 073/095 075 000
FLO BB 070/097 074/097 075 000
MYR BB 073/090 073/092 075 000

.ILM...NONE.

PURDY