515 
FXUS66 KEKA 060944
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
240 AM PDT FRI AUG 6 1999

INTENSE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM GENERATING STRONG
CONVECTION OVER NRN CAZ076 AND OFFSHORE IN PZZ475 THIS MORNING. H7
LOW OR LOWS PROJECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TODAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCORPORATE SOME INSTABILITY FROM THE WARMER CENTRAL VALLEY LATE
THIS MORNING AS DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES
OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A PRONOUNCED CIRCULATION ALOFT
HAS FORMED IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOPS OVER THE BAY AREA AT 0845Z. A
SECOND STRONG JET STREAK IS FORECASTED TO BECOME PART OF THE BROAD
CIRCULATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SLGT RISK AREA FOR
TODAY MAY NEED A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE S AND W LATER THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED E-W ELIPTICAL SHAPE OF THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM...THE TREND FOR A SLOW WNWRD PROGRESSION OF THE ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND ITS STRONG OCCLUSION/DEFORMATION ZONE FORMING ALOFT. 
THE DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST A SLOWER PROGESSION OF THE
ENTIRE PATTERN ON TOP OF US.
  
WITH FWC MOS POPS SO HIGH AND AVN/NGM QPFS BULLEYED BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z OVER CAZ001...WRAPAROUND CONVECTION SEEMS A PLAUSIBLE EXPLANATION
FOR THIS WET SOLUTION AS THE JET STREAK HEADS NORTH UP THE VALLEY AND
TAKES A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH IT. PROBABLY NEED TO KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE ZONES AND ISOLD TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR FOR IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT NEED MUCH ASSISTANCE FROM AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN LOOKS TO MAINTAIN ITS GRIP OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF A WEAKENING BUT STILL COLD UPPER TROUGH
THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN ANY HURRY TO EXIT THE REGION. OUR ONLY
BREAK APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY... BUT ONLY BRIEFLY AND IN ISOLATED AREAS.
POPS CEC 976 EKA 976 UKI 53-.

.EKA...NONE.
MJV