708 
FXUS63 KLBF 060813
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 AM CDT FRI AUG 6 1999

...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MCS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST NE.  EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA LATER TODAY.  LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CO WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER CWA.  UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG ONTO THE CA COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE
OVER THE ROCKIES.  SHORTWAVES WILL SWING ACROSS THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS KICKING OFF SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...MAINLY TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVES.  THE ETA SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING THE
BEST SO FAR SO WILL LEAN TO THIS SOLUTION.  

EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH THE NORTHWEST BEING THE LEAST AFFECTED...AS THE MCS
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO MORE
STABLE AIR AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SO EXPECT SOME DIMINISHMENT
MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE.  THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FEED PLENTY OF
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MCS TO MAINTAIN IT THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
SOUTHWEST NE THIS AFTERNOON.  LI/S OF -1 TO -2 AND CAPES OF 500-800
J/KG WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN.
EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.  

SOME CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.
SUBSIDENCE WILL START PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO
WARRENT PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING.  THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EXPANDS
INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA KEEPING SATURDAY WARM AND DRY.  HOWEVER THERE MAY
BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE
PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT
THIS TIME THOUGH.

NGM SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH WITH MAX TEMPS ON SUN SINCE THE FLOW
AT THE SFC WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY THAN WESTERLY.  THEREFORE WILL
UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES.  OTHERWISE TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

THE CURRENT EXTENDED LOOKS GOOD SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.
  
.LBF...NONE.

DDB