000 TTAA00 KBNA 060706 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 200 AM CDT FRI AUG 6 1999 CURRENT ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EXTREME SRN MIDDLE TN...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 50-MID 60 RANGE. AT UPPER LEVELS...ERN SEABOARD TROF REMAINS INTACT WITH MAIN SHORTWAV FEATURE WELL E OF FA. ETA MODEL SEEMINGLY WINNING THE BATTLE OF 06HR PROGGS AS NGM/AVN DRIVING DRY AIR LITTLE TO FAR SOUTH. TREND IS FOR UPPER LEVELS TO FLATTEN AS E COAST TROF TO KICK OUT AND PLAINS SHORTWAV MOVES CLOSER. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TODAY BEFORE EITHER WASHING OUT OR LIFTING BACK NORTH AS VERY WEAK FEATURE. CWA WILL REMAIN IN DRIER/MORE STABLE REGIME TODAY/TONIGHT WITH WEAK DESTABLIZATION BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON AS SE STATES FEEL INITIAL EFFECTS OF PLAINS STORM SYSTEM. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP WRN ZONES LATE SAT BUT AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE PERSISTENCE OF DRY FORECAST GIVEN VARIABXILITY ISSUES OF MODELS IN LATER PERIODS. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS EXPECTED AS WELL. 07 BNA 92/68/93 001 CSV 87/61/88 000 .BNA...NONE.