503 
FXUS62 KILM 041837
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
235 PM EDT WED AUG 4 1999

WEAK COASTAL SFC LOW HAS MOVED NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WAS 
SITUATED NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT AT 17Z. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWER 
ACTIVITY WHICH AFFECTED MAINLY COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY WILL DEPART 
OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM WEST. MEAN RH PROGGED TO DROP 
BELOW 50% AFTER 00Z. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THRU FRI IN W/NW 
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. NEXT SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST 
ON THU AND STALL OVER THE AREA. MODELS DO SWING A MID-LEVEL S/WV 
NORTH OF US THU NIGHT BUT WE WILL ONLY BE AFFECTED BY THE TAIL END 
AND PROGGED LIFT IS MINIMAL. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR 
TSTM THU AFTN INTO FRI BUT BELIEVE CHANCE IS SMALL ENOUGH TO LEAVE 
OUT OF ZONES AND ONLY INCLUDE A 10 POP IN CCF.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING TROF 
ACROSS THE CWA. 18Z DEWPOINTS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE 
IN THE WESTERN CWA...SO WILL UNDERCUT FWC MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES 
THERE. MAX TEMPS THU AND FRI SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY 
DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 1000-850 MB THKNS VALUES.

CWF...WINDS NLY ALONG THE COAST AND WLY AT FPSN7 IN WAKE OF 
DEPARTING SFC LOW. FCST BEYOND INITIALIZATION BECOMES QUITE TRICKY. 
SW FLOW SHOULD RESUME TONIGHT AS SFC TROF WEAKENS AND INFLUENCE OF 
OFFSHORE HI TAKES OVER. WILL LIKELY LEAVE WINDS SW UNTIL FRI WHEN 
NEXT TROF WILL BE A FACTOR. DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WONT 
ACTUALLY MAKE IT FAR OFF THE COAST WILL GO WITH VARIABLE ON FRI. 
SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS. 

PRELIM CCF:
ILM UU 071/090 072/090 072 011
FLO UU 067/093 069/093 070 011
MYR UU 070/087 070/088 071 011

.ILM...NONE.

MORGAN