524 
FXUS62 KILM 040711
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
309 AM EDT WED AUG 4 1999

05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT 50 NM OFF 
THE COAST OF NC WITH A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW EAST OF FPSN7.  OVERALL 
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THIS 
FEATURE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR.  SURFACE SOLUTIONS HAVE 
THEIR DIFFICULTIES AGAIN TODAY WITH THE AVN DEEPENING THIS LOW TO 
1007 MB OVER EASTERN N.C. BY 06Z TONIGHT.  FOR THE MOST PART...THE 
NGM AND ETA LOSE THIS PARTICULAR LOW WHILE MOVING THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WEST A LITTLE.  USING THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A GUIDE A LITTLE 
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT SEEMS REASONABLE ONCE THE SURFACE LOW 
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

IT DOES APPEAR NOW THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL AFFECT THE 
IMMEDIATE COAST TO WARRANT CHC POPS FOR TODAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE 
VERY PROBLEMATIC WITH THIS POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM...A FEW HOURS OF 
SUN AND FWC NUMBERS ARE OUT THE WINDOW ALONG THE COAST.  WILL GO 
WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY COASTAL AREAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY 
CONDITIONS INLAND.  TEMPERATURES WILL APPROXIMATE PERSISTENCE INLAND 
AND FAN NUMBERS ALONG THE COAST.

BEYOND TODAY...EXPECT MOISTURE TO MOVE OUT TONIGHT AND A RETURN OF 
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CWFA WIDE THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE 
CLOSE AND NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE.

CWF...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE COME DOWN AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 
SCA THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS LOW DEPARTS. WILL 
INITIALIZE WITH STRONGER WINDS N.C. WATERS THIS AM DUE TO PROXIMITY 
OF THE LOW AND TREND ALL DOWNWARD WITH TIME.  N-NW WINDS THIS AM ARE 
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THU.

PRELIM CCF:
ILM BU 088/072 091/073 091 310
FLO BU 092/070 093/071 094 000
MYR BU 086/072 087/072 088 210 

.ILM...NONE.

RAN