654 
FXUS65 KRIW 031910
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
104 PM MDT TUE AUG 3 1999

WV/IR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TWO SHORT WAVES...ONE
OVER NORTHERN NV AND SOUTHERN ID AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN UT.
TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS FORM NM INTO CO WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING ACROSS
AZ AND SOUTHERN NV. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BUILDUPS OF CU/TCU
OVER THE WIND RIVER AND ABSAROKA RANGES AND HIGH LEVEL CI OVER
SOUTHERN WY. SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE SD/NB BORDER ON WEST
ACROSS INTO SOUTHEAST WY WITH LIGHT E TO SE SFC WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWFA.

SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST WITH
A DEEP TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY 05/12Z. WITH RIDGE AXIS JUST
MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA...THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE AND PCPN CHANCES MAINLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST 700-300 MB LAYER VERTICAL MOTION IS AT 04/00Z AND AGAIN IN THE
04/18Z TO 05/00Z TIME FRAME. THE ETA MODEL IS SHOWING HIGH 700-300 MB
LAYER RH ACROSS THE AREA FROM 04/18Z THROUGH 05/12Z WITH DEEP S TO SE
FLOW SETTING UP. ONE POSSIBILITY THAT MAY CANCEL THE PCPN CHANCES IS
IF THE CURRENT MID AND UPPER DRYING OVER AZ MAKES IT NORTH INTO OUR
AREA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH ISOLD TO SCT POPS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS. COOLER TEMPS IS STORE DUE TO INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES BUT NOT AS COOL AS FWC GUIDANCE.      
                
MC

.RIW...NONE.