889 
FXUS64 KLUB 020851
AFDLBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 AM CDT MON AUG 2 1999

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LOW BETWEEN
HOBBS AND LUBBOCK.  HARD TO FIND THE CIRCULATION IN LATEST WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY.  ETA SHOWS THIS TREND OF UPPER LOW WEAKENING INTO A
WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER REGION.  KLBB 88D REFLECTIVITY LOOP SHOWS A
CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF TAHOKA DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY EAST.  WITH
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING TO THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY...DO NOT
EXPECT THIS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TO GO ANYWHERE FAST.  NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MORE DEFINITIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAGE TO AMARILLO TO TUCUMCARI.
 
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER AREA WILL BROADBRUSH HIGH 
CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WITH LESS OF A CHANCE OVER THE 
SOUTHERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAIN BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.  RAINFALL
COVERAGE HAS BEEN SPOTTY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND CAN NOT 
DELINEATE ONE REGION OVER ANOTHER FOR FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT...SO 
WILL NOT PAINT THE ENTIRE REGION IN A WATCH ATTM.

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH SCENARIO BEING SIMILAR 
TO LAST NIGHT AND WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW 
BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH 
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  LATEST MRF CONTINUES TO 
SHOW RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER REGION 
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL RAIN EVENTS THROUGH THE 
WEEK.  

FRIONA      81/61/80/61  5534
TULIA       83/63/81/63  5534
CHILDRESS   91/69/88/70  4444
BROWNFIELD  85/64/83/65  5544
LUBBOCK     86/65/84/66  5544    
ASPERMONT   93/71/90/71  3344

.LBB...NONE.

TINSLEY