612 
FXUS74 KBMX 200837
SFDBHM
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
335 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 1999

A CPL OF THINGS TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH THIS MORNING.  FIRST IS UPR
LVL VORT CENTER...DRIFTING INTO AL FM GA.  THIS VORT MAX IS FCST BY
MDLS TO CONT TO DRIFT WWD ACRS SRN AL INTO MS THRU TMRW.  ITS
PRESENCE...AND CONT THREAT OF SEABREEZE ACTIVITY...LEAD TO
CONTINUATION OF CHC POPS IN SRN PTN (MAYBE EVEN SWRN PTN) OF FCST
AREA TDA.

SECOND IS THE TSTM CLUSTER IN OH VLY.  LATEST SAT LOOPS SHOW THAT
THIS CLUSTER IS...IF NOT WEAKENING...THEN AT LEAST NOT MAKING MUCH
SWD PROGRESS.  EVEN SO...MDL QPFS (INCLUDING MM5 AND MESO-ETA) SHOW
RAINFALL IN TN VLY TDA.  THINK THIS WARRANTS NUDGING POPS INTO CHC
CATEGORY TDA IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

BEYOND THAT...WL CONT WITH CLIMO/PERSISTENCE FLAVORED FCST...NOTING
THAT MSL WAS THE STATES HOTSPOT YESTERDAY...WITH 94 DEGREES.  THANKS
TO MOB AND TLH FOR NOTING TRANSITION OF COASTAL LOW LVL FLOW FM
SW...TO W OR NW TMRW...WHICH WOULD LESSEN EFFECT OF SEABREEZE (LESS
CONVECTION...AND HIGHER TEMPS).

HSV 093/071/093 422
BHM 091/071/092 312
MGM 092/071/092 322
MOB 089/073/092 422
CSG 092/071/092 322

.BHM...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.