999 
FXUS65 KPSR 162159
AFDPSR

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SUN MAY 16 1999

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA COASTS WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OUT OF ARIZONA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA. AVN IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE HEIGHTS
AND FASTER MOVING THE RIDGE EAST COMPARED TO THE ETA AND NGM THROUGH
48 HOURS. EITHER WAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT WE ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH WARMING AS MODELS INDICATE.
BOTH MRF AND EUROPEAN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC APPROACHING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EUROPEAN LOOKS
BETTER WITH AN OPEN TROUGH COMPARED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OF THE MRF...
BUT PROBABLY SLOWER...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TEMPERATURES CHANGES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR NOW.

ELLIS