999 
FXUS64 KCRP 161911
AFDCRP
COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 1999

AS LAST EVENINGS ACCAS ATTACK DEMONSTRATED...WE ARE VERY 
UNSTABLE...BUT ALSO STRONGLY CAPPED.  EVEN OUT WEST...THE MEXICAN 
CONVECTION COULD NOT GET PAST KLRD BEFORE THE CAP SQUASHED IT.  THIS 
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN TX THEN.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO 
START WELL NORTH OF CWFA AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AREA ON 
MONDAY NIGHT.  UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELD EXPECTED AS AREA COMES 
INTO FAVORABLE QUAD OF THE SUBTROP JET MAY HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION.  
IF THINGS PAN OUT...PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE HIGH WINDS/DOWNBURSTS 
SIMILIAR TO LAST WEEK ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN CWFA.  
FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN 30 PERCENT RANGE AND WATCH CONVECTION 
UNFOLD TO NORTH MONDAY. WILL ALSO NEED TO CONTINUE POPS IN FAR 
WESTERN CWFA FOR CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE OFF OF SIERRA MADRE LATE 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE PERSISTENCE 
THROUGH MONDAY.  FAN TEMPS CONTINUE TOO HIGH AND WILL USE NUMBERS 
CLOSE TO FWC BEYOND MONDAY AFTN.

EXTENDED...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED OVER AREA ON WED.  DO 
NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP DESPITE MRFS WANTING TO BRING ANOTHER 
DISTURBANCE IN WED OR THU.  PREFER NOGAPS SOLN ON DAYS 4 AND 5 WHICH 
WOULD KEEP US DRY.  WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE 
ADDING PRECIP.

MARINE...SCA OVER THE BAYS AND INTERCOASTAL WATERWAYS TO CONTINUE 
AND WILL BE EXTENDED INTO OFFSHORE AREAS STARTING TONIGHT.  WINDS 
AND SEAS ARE GRADUALLY PICKING UP OFFSHORE AND EXPECTED TO REACH 
ADVISORY CAT THIS EVENING. 
 
PRELIMS...

CRP EE 077/088 073/085 071 0-3
NGP    079/086 076/084 073
VCT EE 074/088 071/083 068 0-3
LRD BE 077/097 072/093 070 2-3


.CRP...SCA FOR THE INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS AND FROM 0 TO 50        
NM FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR(GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275).

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