999 
FXUS63 KDMX 160845
AFDDSM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 1999

PEA TO MARBLE HAIL JUST ENDED ALONG WITH A NICE BOLT OF LIGHTNING 
OVR THE RDA. SO FAR...EVERYTHING IS AS XPCD WITH NO SURPRISES AS 
THIS LINE MOVS THRU. QUESTION BECOMES WHAT HAPPENS LTR TDA. OVERALL 
SYNOPTIC PTRN HAS NOT CHGD MUCH WITH TWO STREAMS STILL AFFECTING THE 
CNTRL U.S. PLENTY OF MOISURE IN PLACE WITH SUSTAINED SLY FLOW IN THE 
LOWER LVLS CONTG. YDA AFTN/S INITIATION OCCURRED JUST N OF SFC 
WRMFNT IN NC KS NR THE H8 BNDRY AT NOSE OF THETAE RDG. XPC THAT TO 
OCCUR AGN THIS AFTN WITH PLACEMENT JUST A BIT FARTHER E ALG THE 
KS/NE BDR PSBLY ARND CNK WITH BEST H8 CONVERGENCE AS FCST BY THE 
ETA. MDL HAS LI/S GOING TO NEG DOUBLE DIGITS IN THIS AREA WITH 
BUFKIT CAPES TO 4K J/KG. BUFKIT ANIMATION INDICATED LRG SQUALL LN 
WITH SUPERCELLS ON THE SRN FLANK. DECENT RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET FCST 
TO BE IN PLACE BY THE ETA AS WELL BTWN 00Z AND 06Z. WITH PLENTY OF CLDS 
ARND...NOT XPCG TMPS TO REACH GUIDANCE HIGHS. ONLY A COUPLE OF 
STATIONS REACHED 70 YDA...AND THIS MRNG/S RAIN-COOLED AIR WL NOT 
HELP. XPC FAIRLY LRG MCS OVR MOST OF IA TNGT WITH HVY RAINFALL. PREV 
FCST HAS THIS THINKG AND WL CONT IT. IN FACT PREV ZONES ARE QUITE 
GOOD...SO ONLY MINOR ADJS.

.DSM...NONE
MYERS