999 
FXUS65 KBYZ 120259
AFDBIL
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
850 PM MDT TUE MAY 11 1999
 
VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
EARLY TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER SLOWLY WEAKENING SINCE
EARLIER TODAY PER PREVIOUS SURFACE ANALYSES. 2KM IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS COLDEST CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENTS HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH AT ALL FROM
WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT...OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MT. CLOUD TOPS DO SHOW SIGNS OF WARMING SLIGHTLY RECENTLY. KBLX
(BILLINGS) RADAR INDICATES SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. 
 
AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA EXPECT A DECREASE IN
DYNAMIC INSTABILITY/COLD ADVECTION...DECOUPLING FROM 700MB 20-30KT
WINDS...MEANS LESS WIND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING A DRAMATIC
IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER THOUGH DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH STAYING OVER THE NORTHWEST. THIS MEANS MORE COOL AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. A STRONG ZONAL FLOW CUTTING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC SENDS MORE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUR WAY. THE NEXT ARRIVING
WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME. GOING FORECAST PACKAGE INDICATES THIS WITH
BETTER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP (POPS) DURING THIS TIME. 
 
WILL SEND AN UPDATE BY 915 PM. THIS TO LOWER POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT AND
ADJUST WINDS WHERE NEEDED. TEMPS ARE FINE. CANEPA
 
BIL EW 034/059 036/056 036 642344
LVM .. 030/057 036/055 ... 641344
HDN .. 032/060 034/057 ... 642344
MLS .. 030/061 036/059 ... 643224
4BQ .. 030/059 034/057 ... 643224
BHK .. 025/057 030/055 ... 644224
SHR EW 027/062 034/058 034 641344