999 
FXUS62 KMHX 071420
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1020 AM EDT FRI MAY 7 1999

MID-SUMMER WX PATTERN IN FULL FORCE ACROSS EASTERN NC. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS INDICATED CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND L.I.S OF -9.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A DEARTH OF OF SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISMS
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TO
THE WEST. THIS WILL MAKE PINPOINTING BEST THREAT AREAS VERY
DIFFICULT. OUTFLOWS FROM YSTDYS CONVECTION AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
ARE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE PERSISTENT GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE DIFLUENCE DURING
MAX HEATING AS THE RIGHT REAR QUAD PASS NEAR THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A THREAT OF
SVR...ESP SRN SECTIONS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE BEST LIFT/OUTFLOWS.
LOW LEVEL THKNS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S BUT WILL KEEP IN MID
80S AS THICKENING CLOUDS WILL HOLD READINGS DOWN A BIT.


P-GRAD ACROSS THE WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HEATING...SHOULD INCREASE WINDS TO 20 KT. W DIR WILL
BECOME SW WITH HEATING.

.MHX...NONE.

ELARDO