999 
FXUS62 KMHX 070637
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
237 AM EDT FRI MAY 7 1999

THINK ONGOING TRENDS ARE FINE WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS TDY AND TNT AND A
BIT LESS OF A CHC ON SAT. TEMP FCST FINE WITH 80S INLAND AND 70S
BCHS WITH C-BRZ. NO SIG CHANGES UPCOMING.

TDY...AIRMASS OVR ERN NC WILL BE WRM AND HUMID TDY WITH TEMPS IN THE
80S AND DWPTS IN THE 60S. WTR VPR LOOP INDICATED A WELL DEFINED
DISTURBANCE OVR WRN TENN HEADING NEWD. MORE SHRTWV ENERGY WAS ALSO
EVIDENT ON WTR VPR LOOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BIG UPP LOW WITH GD
SPDS AT 300 MB. WHAT WORRIES ME IS THIS ADDITIONAL ENERGY FRM THE SW
WILL COME STEAM ROLLING NEWD THIS AFT/EVE AT THE TIME OF MAX HEATING.
IT APPEARS ERN NC HAS A DECENT CHC TO BE IN RIGHT REAR QUAD WITH
ADEQUATE UVM THIS AFT/EVE. COMBINE THIS WITH GD INSTAB AND PRETTY
DECENT THETA-E RDG IN PLACE AND THERE IS NO WAY TSTMS WILL BE TAKEN
OUT OF FCST. WL LV POPS AT 40% BUT IT MAY ACTUALLY END UP A BIT HIER.
WL LET LTR SHFTS MONITOR. TNT...STILL HI DWPTS AND GD THETA-E RDG
ARND. SW FLOW ALFT CONTS TO HAV SOME ENERGY WITH IT. WL LV CHC TSTMS
IN PLACE. LOW TEMPS MILD WITH 60S. SAT...MDLS INDICATING DRYING AND
MORE WRLY FLOW JUST ABV THE SFC. SFC DWPT BNDRY WORKING ITS WAY EWD
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT THIS PT WILL LV ONGONG TRENDS OF SLGT CHC
TSTM AS THIS DWPT BNDRY NOT REACHING CST UNTIL NR DARK.

CWF...TYPICAL NOCTURNAL SURGE GOING ON RITE NOW AT THE TOWERS AND
THIS WILL HAPPEN AGAIN TNT. WL LV BLO SCA FOR NOW AS SPDS WONT BE AS
STRNG DURING THE DAYLGT HRS THEN PICK UP TO 20 KT AND GUSTY AGAIN
TNT.

.MHX...NONE.
GATES