999 
FXUS63 KTOP 062014
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
315 PM CDT THU MAY 6 1999

WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST.

PER MODELS...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY 
NORTHWARD...LEAVING CWA IN CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
BELIEVE STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SIMILAR TO 
YESTERDAY...WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT SUNSET SO WILL HOLD ONTO WIND 
ADVISORY ONLY UNTIL SUNSET THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVES 
ROTATING AROUND BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW INTO CWA ARE BRINGING 
SHOWERS...BUT GENERALLY ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE BEEN 
REPORTED FROM THE SHOWERS LAST EVENING AND SO FAR TODAY. 
OBVIOUSLY...FROM LOOKING AT LATEST RADARS...BEST CHANCES FOR 
MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE IN COUNTIES BORDERING NEBRASKA 
THIS EVENING. EXPECT...LIKE YESTERDAY...SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY 
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND BE MOSTLY GONE BY MIDNIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES 
AND WINDS STAYING UP IN 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN FWC NUMBERS AND EVEN THESE MAY BE A FEW 
DEGREES TOO COLD. 

WITH UPPER SYSTEM MOVING A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM AREA ON FRIDAY 
AND GUIDANCE POPS FALLING OFF...WILL CONFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES 
TO NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF CWA. MODELS SUGGESTING WILL STILL SEE 
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF CWA AND THUS BELIEVE COOLER 
ETA/FAN TEMPERATURES LOOKING BETTER FOR HIGHS. 
   
SHOULD FINALLY SEE A DECENT DAY ON SATURDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY 
MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LET SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS RETURN TO 
AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S LOOK REASONABLE. 

PB